Despite expert warnings that the plan could backfire, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed Thursday the administration is actively exploring a temporary waiver on Iranian crude oil stranded on tankers in international waters. Bessent said the potential release of approximately 140 million barrels of Iranian crude is part of the emergency supply response to oil prices above $100 per barrel caused by Iran’s Hormuz blockade.
The Hormuz blockade has created a genuine supply emergency that has lasted for close to two weeks, removing between 10 and 14 million barrels of daily supply from global markets. The administration’s willingness to explore the Iranian crude waiver despite expert warnings of a potential backfire reflects the severity of the economic pressure being created by the sustained price surge.
Bessent said the Iranian crude on tankers, originally heading toward Chinese buyers, represents an available near-term supply solution. A targeted temporary waiver could unlock this oil for global sale, providing roughly two weeks of price support during the US campaign to force Iran to reopen the strait.
The Treasury has previously explored and deployed comparable supply waivers, including one for Russian oil that added approximately 130 million barrels to world supply. An additional unilateral US Strategic Petroleum Reserve release beyond the G7’s 400 million barrel commitment is also being planned, with the administration maintaining its firm opposition to financial market intervention.
The expert warnings of a backfire were specific and substantive. Compliance professionals and national security analysts warned that enabling Iranian oil revenues — even within a narrowly scoped waiver — would provide the Tehran regime with financial resources to sustain military activities and fund regional proxy forces, potentially prolonging the Hormuz crisis rather than resolving it. Critics argued that a plan that risks backfiring in this way requires more careful analysis before being deployed, particularly given the strategic stakes involved.